If Canadian prices follow U.S. trends, certain cities will experience a major slide in house prices
Some experts are predicting a U.S. style housing crash here in Canada, saying that we're only a year or so behind them. So what would that mean for us?
We decided to take a look at how much the average U.S. housing prices rose in the last ten years, and discovered that prices in October 2008 were 54% higher than in October 1998.Since U.S. prices peaked in April 2007 and Canadian prices peaked roughly a year later, we've calculated what a 10-year, 54% increase would add up to here - 18 months past our peak. That would mean that most Canadian cities are headed for a fall in housing prices, especially those out west. The full statistics on average house prices are below:
U.S. Housing Prices Start date (Oct. 1998): US$184,300
Peak (April 2007): US$322,100
Current (Oct. 2008): US$283,400

Vancouver Start date: (Oct. 1999): $283,957
Peak (May 2008): $624,639
Current (Oct. 2008): $556,682
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $436,726 |

EdmontonStart date (Oct. 1999): $120,027 {sidebar id=1}
Peak (March 2008): $343,760
Current (Oct. 2008): $317,744
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $184,602

Calgary Start date (Oct. 1999): $169,068
Peak (March 2008): $419,396
Current (Oct. 2008): $388,565
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $260,027

SaskatoonStart date (Oct. 1999): $110,195
Peak: (June 2008): $310,386
Current: (Oct. 2008): $285,310
Predicted: (Oct. 2009): $169,480

Winnipeg Start date (Oct. 1999): $84,588
Peak (May 2008): $210,901
Current: (Oct. 2008): $190,374
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $130,096

Toronto Start date (Oct. 1999): $230,864
Peak (April 2008): $398,687
Current (Oct. 2008): $353,018
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $355,069

Ottawa Start date (Oct. 1999): $145,121
Peak (June 2008): $298,336
Current (Oct. 2008): $280,870
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $223,196

Montreal Start date (Oct. 1999): $116,517
Peak (July 2008): $277,703
Current (Oct. 2008): $263,734
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $179,203

Halfax Start date (Oct. 1999): $122,376
Peak (May 2008): $243,692
Current: (Oct. 2008): $224,607
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $188,214