Being an avid news reader, I note that on a daily basis there seems to be a dramatic swing between the Bulls and Bears, the optimists and the pessimists. At best, the news media outlets are a machine that exists to funnel the latest and greatest bits of information to our eyes and ears, for our digestion and use in our day to day lives.  The paradoxical nature of ‘sex sells’ and ‘drama is news, news sells papers’ sometimes leads to conflicting messages through the news channels.

How does this apply to the Real Estate Market, or even better, the Economy as a whole?

Over the past few weeks, we’ve been fed several conflicting messages, from the “chicken little-esque” sky-is-falling messages of “Alberta MLS sales forecast marked down for 2010” and “Calgary’s building permit values plunge in May” all the way to “Economy to grow briskly: RBC”  and this morning’s ”House prices likely to rise 5-7% – Conference Board“.  So… what’s it going to be?

For one thing, the headlines are the catchy/sexy/scary that attract the eye and spurs some of our most powerful emotions: increasing pleasure and avoiding pain. Realistically, are we an awesome, bullet-proof economy on Monday, but by Tuesday we’re falling apart and then somehow manage duct-tape everything back together to ‘sustainable norms’ by Friday again?  Some weeks, perhaps, but certainly not every week!  Something that we should also keep in mind: many reports released by more local or regional publications are re-printed from their ‘cousin news wires’ that are more Nationally-focused and therefore oftentimes preach the word from a pulpit that doesn’t necessarily apply directly to our local markets.

Constant education from reliable sources helps to keep a more level-headed perspective on the markets and helps to prevent from a short-term emotional meltdown from the day-to-day news media flare-ups.  With this concept in mind, I’d recommend reviewing the long-term forecasts, such as those offered by CMHC Annual Forecasts and Analysis.  Case in point: Strangely enough, this year’s CMHC Q1 2010 Housing Forecast actually outlined the overall expected pace of things to be ‘hotter’ in the first six months of the year while it would slow in the later months as rates rose and the economy was likely to be reined in to keep pace with the rest of the global economy’s rebuilding as we all come out of the post-2008/2009 slump.  What’s neater than that?  You can read the National version or even break it down into region-specific publications as well. They also release quarterly updates that track their projections and amend their general perspectives as the year goes by.

SO… with this in mind, which way are we going?  I guess that this depends on your personal ‘gut’ more than anything, but using the forecasts as a compass, 2010 looks pretty stable for a year-over-year gain in new home builds, new multi-family starts and a stable resale market.  Taken directly from CMHC’s Spring 2010 Housing Outlook for the Calgary CMA: “Despite the moderation in demand, resale activity is anticipated to inch past 2009 levels and move closer toward the 2000-2009 average of 26,305 transactions.”

In all, despite Mother Nature’s best efforts at keeping us indoors during ‘summertime’ (over the last few weeks) – and then her smartening up this week to hit us all with sunburn and scalding car seats – homebuyers are buying, refinancing for renovations and debt consolidation are funding and rates are holding steady.  As always, through the busy times and the slow, to our mutual benefit I’m here to help keep you in the loop as to the latest financial news and updates in the lending market!

Helping you navigate the sometimes-confusing media messages about the Canadian Real Estate Market,

James C. Tworek and the Trimor team!

www.TrimorMoney.com and www.CalgaryMortgageBlog.ca