Two prominent economists warned Wednesday Canada's housing market is at a tipping point and could trigger a financial meltdown that would mirror the unprecedented crisis gripping our neighbour to the south.

"We fear . . . it may simply be a matter of time (before) . . . housing and credit markets in Canada crack," said Merrill Lynch Canada Inc. analysts David Wolf and Carolyn Kwan in a note to clients. "Markets remain overly sanguine with respect to the prospects for the Canadian housing market, the financial sector and the overall economy."

Locally, some real estate players are carefully watching stretched household finances coinciding with falling real estate values, worried the squeeze could steepen the descent of a falling market -- or worse.

John Pasalis in Toronto Real Estate News

Toronto's real estate bubble in the late 1980's left a grave mark on the city. Those who didn't lose money in the bubble probably knew someone who did.

We saw the lingering effects of the last bubble in 2002 when after just five years of modest price appreciation in Toronto's real estate market (2.61% to 6.64% annually) fears of another real estate bubble loomed in the minds of many Toronto home owners and buyers. Six years later the fear of a repeat of the early 1990's real estate crash continues to be on the minds of many Torontonians.

In a previous post (see: Toronto Real Estate Market is balanced: UBC Study) I discussed how several prominent economists are in agreement that Toronto real estate prices are balanced. But many of our readers remain skeptical. They remain convinced that we are in the middle of a real estate bubble similar to the late 1980's that is just waiting to pop.

Today I'll highlight some of the key differences between Toronto's current real estate market and the market in the late 1980's.

Canadians have been flooding into the U. S. housing market, purchasing a record number of homes south of the border, and twice as many as a year earlier.

Armed with what until recently was a strong currency, most were also paying cash, according to the 2008 National Association of Realtors annual profile of international home buying activity in the United States.

Canadians have replaced Mexicans as the top foreign buyers of U. S. properties.

The surge in purchases of U. S. properties by Canadians was due to the combination of the stronger dollar, a drop in U. S. house prices, and last winter's record snowfall, says John Clinkard, an economist with Reed Construction Data.

 

 

Read More...

OTTAWA - It's the best of times and the worst of times for Canadian cities, depending on where they're located, according to an economic think-tank that expects cities in Saskatchewan will enjoy their strongest growth, and Ontario cities their weakest performance, in more than a decade.

Western Canadian cities take the top seven spots in the Conference Board of Canada's latest Metropolitan Outlook, released Monday, led by Saskatoon and then Regina.

"Both Saskatoon and Regina are on track to post their strongest rates of economic growth since 1997, and Saskatoon will lead Canadian metropolitan areas in economic growth for the second consecutive year," said Mario Lefebvre, the Conference Board's director for municipal studies.

 

 

 

Read More...

Economic uncertainty, the U.S. housing slump, and a lacklustre local real estate environment have taken a toll on Calgary's market for luxury homes this year.
 
Luxury home sales across the country have held steady so far this year despite an overall cooling in the residential real estate market, but activity in the top end is expected to taper in most major Canadian markets in the coming months, says a report released Thursday by Re/Max.

The Re/Max Upper-End Report, which highlights trends and developments in 15 housing markets across the country for the first seven months of 2008, found Vancouver; Victoria; Regina; Saskatoon; Winnipeg; London, Ont.; Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont.; Ottawa; Halifax-Dartmouth; and St. John's, N.L., all experienced an upswing in sales activity, while declines were noted in Kelowna, B.C.; Calgary; Edmonton; Hamilton-Burlington and Toronto.

Read More...